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Royal Ascot Day 1 – Group Race Galore

It’s that time of year again folks, if you’re a flat racing fan you should’ve put in for 4 days of annual leave months ago – or have 4 very good excuses lined up like ducks in a row. I wish you all the best of luck and hopefully you’ll be reaching high just like the royals (this will not be the last awful pun i make be warned). Anyway I digress, onto the serious stuff now.

Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) – 14:30

One mile over the straight track at Ascot is not something to be taken lightly, and with the market being dominated by 2 Godolphin runners of serious ability i think it best to start there. The favourite Notable Speech (15/8) is clearly a top class indiviudal, but has a relatively uninspiring record over this C&D with a question mark on his ability to utilise his utterly paralysing turn of foot over a straight track when compared to round a bend, where he can be filled up and power home as demonstrated at Del Mar last year. Despite this, he won the Lockhinge emphatically when last seen and is clearly in better form than his 4th place finish in this last season. He would be tough to beat if having the race run to suit. The Appleby trained second string by name but in my opinion not by ability Opera Ballo (7/2) conjures the same doubts over a straight mile as his stablemate for differing reasons. The son of Ghaiyyath proved tough to settle early in his career and can be headstrong. However, he flew the gates at Sandown last time out and put his well-touted rivals to the sword with a little left to spare (albeit on a round track!). If he reproduces the same gate speed in this instance he could be hard to peg back – with Billy Loughnane on board being no bad thing. Importantly, both horses will benefit greatly from the presence of the suspected sacrificial pacemaker First Conquest (50/1) I suspect. A similar story to the Lockhinge might be told in respect to both Zeus Olympios (10/1) and Damysus (16/1) who both appear to be vunerable at the very top level at this point in time. In contrast to the course layout questions posed to the first 2 in the market, the Harry Eustace stable star Docklands (7/1) absolutely adores Ascot – never finishing outside the top 4 here. He is the defending champion and as such has been respected in the market as of now. Notably, the last 2 winners of this contest have gone to outsiders. So, a horse such as Ciceros Gift (40/1) returing to form (providing a sutiable pace collapse) could be appearing late on the scene for minor honours.

Coventry Stakes (Group 2) – 15:05

Just the standard 22 runners that go to post for this 6 furlong group 2 tomorrow, and as with a lot of black type races of the past Aiden O’Brien has a vice grip on the market. The hot favourite Confucius (7/4) is the choice of Ryan Moore and aims to justify his 1,700,000 guineas pricetag as a yearling. He looked mightly impressive on his second start, powering away to the line and that peformance was backed up by the clock – with a good draw he should be thereabouts at the finish. However, looking down the rivaling field the one word that epitomises the cohort is unexposed (as per usual in this race I know!). This leaves a plethora of tantalising options at each way values, of which i will mention a couple that stand out to me. Firstly, the stablemate to the favourite – Great Barrier Reef (8/1). This colt has the best form in the book through winning the Marble Hill Stakes (group 3), and in time this trip may be on the short side for him. Despite this, he has a willing attitude and plenty of ability which he will need from his low draw (3). If facing a stiff test here, he could be powering home from the far side of the track to record an upset (I’m sure Aiden won’t mind too much though). Night In Vegas (10/1) struck me as a colt with potential on his debut and duly confirmed this next time out (even if only facing 2 rivals that day), significantly he lost both front shoes and still managed to win a shade cosily. The same owners as Calendar Girl have a strong hope for more black type in this race. Penultimately, it is no exaggeration to conclude that Archie Watson knows what it takes to win a race of this nature – as he did with his star sprinter Bradsell now turned out as a promising sire for the future. He puts his faith in his Yarmouth debut winner Siouxperb (14/1). A stoutly bred son of Sioux nation, he should relish this stiff finish and represents good value in my inexperienced eyes. To round off this fascinating contest, one at a large price is Cilician (40/1) who finished second on debut to the reopposing The Ginger Kid (40/1). He showed signs of greeness in combination with having to switch to get a run into the race that time, but powered home late. He should be wiser this time and i can see him running a big race (maybe a one for an extra places bet).

King Charles the III Stakes (Group 1) – 15:40

A 5 furlong sprint race consisting of 26 runners this year, with an international infusion impacting the market and heightening intrigue into this contest. Before I venture down under i feel it necessary to focus on homesoil progenies such as the reinvitalised Karl Burke runner Night Raider (7/1). The newly gelded son of Dark Angel is 2 from 2 this season proving tactically versatile by winning the Temple Stakes last time out from off the pace (usually front runs). Should run a big race for his in form trainer and Wathnan Racing. The drop back to 5 furlongs and the aid of the reappaerance run seemed to work wonders last time out for last years winner of this American Affair (17/2), Paul Mulrennan will be hoping for a repeat of events and he should be eating up ground from the rear late on. George Boughey plunges his filly Rosy Affair (22/1) into the deep end here but seems confident on her ability to hold her own – praising her speed over his gallops this week as the fastest he has seen. She will need to improve again from her recent efforts but cannot be ruled out for this years 2000 guineas winning yard. A promising individual for Amo Racing and the all-fronts firing George Scott yard, Behike (28/1) comes here excruciatingly unexposed and although clearly amply able over further, he travels well and could enjoy this test of speed. The mainstays of our sprint division such as Big Mojo (16/1) and Time for Sandals (20/1) should both come forward from their respective latter engagements and will be a danger to all if on song. Starlust (40/1) has it all to prove after a failed stud attempt (it happens to the best of us) but if proving anywhere near as effective as at the Breeders Cup he would be interesting. Now, as aformentioned, the Australians have sent over a small but deadly set of individuals in an attempt to follow in the hoofsteps of the great Black Caviar. One such individual appears in this race – Overpass (10/3) who has terrific international form with none other than Ka Ying Rising. He finished a good 4th at Radwick last time out in a group 1 and displays debilitating early speed. Compounding his ability is the lack of concern regarding the circumstance for him, being a 7 year old gelding not much should phase this in form globetrotter. He will prove hard to peg back if in the same vein of form.

St James’s Palace Stakes (Group 1) – 16:20

A race run over a mile on the round track here and althougb 6 go to post, it should really be down to 4 of these to battle it out for the win. The most potent case of the 4 is provided by the undefeated 3 year old Bow Echo (5/6) who blitzed his rivals in the 2000 guineas including the reopposing Gstaad (11/4), who franked the form in the corresponding Irish race shortly after the fact. The Aiden O’Brien trained runner could undoubtedly get closer to his old rival this time around but I’m certain to win this the favourite will half to underpeform. Another real danger to the favourite lies in the Godolphin trained Talk Of New York (11/2) who is a rapidly improving colt with considerable potential. He stamped himself at black type level last time out winning by 5 and 1/2 lengths and provided he settles through the retained use of the hood he should be competitive. Ballydoyle are dually represented by a fellow group 1 winner in Puerto Rico (14/1) who will most likely set the fractions for the rest of his rivals and aim to quicken better than he did in the french 2000 guineas previously. Although, this is not assured despite having the benefit of that outing with the likelyhood of faster ground than may be optimal for him – however at the current prices he does spark some interest. The 2 other runners are, without mincing my words, chancing their luck and hoping for a slice of minor honours. I’m expecting the favourite to win this, and win this well.

To Conclude

A great day of competitive group and handicap races ahead, best of luck to all those having a punt and come back tomorrow for the same ramble. Please gamble semi-responsibly. Without further ado here are my tentative selections:

Queen Anne Stakes – 14:30

• Opera Ballo (7/2)
• Docklands (7/1) EW

Coventry Stakes – 15:05

• Night In Vegas (10/1) EW
• Siouxperb (14/1) EW
• Cilician (40/1) EW

King Charles the III Stakes – 15:40

• Overpass (10/3)
• Behike (28/1) EW

St James’s Palace Stakes – 16:20

• Bow Echo (5/6) NAP

Written By Sebastien Croxall